Newly released data from the 2021 Census indicate that poverty¹ was reduced for many Toronto residents in 2020. The data discussed below, which are based on 2020 income, show that significantly fewer people in Toronto lived on low income in 2020 compared to 2015. However, even Statistics Canada has cautioned that these developments are not expected to continue in 2021 and 2022.

From 2015 to 2020, poverty rates in Toronto fell for all age groups, with children and families benefitting the most (Figure 1). Over the five-year period:

• The poverty rate for the total population decreased by 7 percentage points from 20.2% in 2015 to 13.2% in 2020.
• Child poverty decreased by 11.6 percentage points, moving from 26.3% in 2015 to 14.7% in 2020. 
• Poverty among working-age adults saw a 7.3 percentage point reduction, moving from 19.2% in 2015 to 11.9% in 2020.
• Seniors, who previously had the lowest rate of poverty among all age categories, experienced the smallest improvement, only a half percentage point reduction from 2015 to 2020.
  
  

Figure 1: Poverty Rates for the Total Population and Age Groups, 2015 & 2020, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada. (2017). 2016 Census of the population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. 
Statistics Canada (2022). 2021 Census of Population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001.}

Poverty reduction was also widespread across the city: child and family poverty decreased in every single ward in Toronto. Figure 2 below displays the percentage point change in child poverty for each ward.

• The most significant improvements in child and family poverty rates were seen in Toronto Centre with a 19.6% percentage point decrease, Scarborough Guildwood with a 17.8% percentage point decrease, and Humber River–Black Creek with a 17.1% decrease.
• In Scarborough North the child and family poverty rate was cut in half, decreasing from 28.6% in 2015 to 14.4% in 2020. 
  
  

Figure 2: Change in Child Poverty Rates Between 2020 and 2015 by Ward / Riding, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada (2022). 2021 Census of Population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-401-X2021010.
Statistics Canada (2017). 2016 Census of Population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-401-X2016045.}

The proportion and patterns of low income is not the only way economic wellbeing is assessed. How income is distributed across the population, commonly measured using the Gini coefficient,  is another important measure. Using this index, a score of 0 represents a perfectly equal distribution of income, while 1 signifies total income inequality. The Gini coefficient of adjusted after-tax income of households in Toronto went from 0.428 in 2015 to 0.371 in 2020. Despite this decline in income inequality, Toronto’s Gini coefficient was still higher than Canada’s (0.302) and Ontario’s (0.308).²

Despite this 2020 improvement, child poverty still persists in Toronto

Because the levels of child and family poverty were so high, they remain high despite the 2020 reductions. 

• Toronto Centre continues to have the highest rate (25.6%) of child and family poverty.
• Humber River–Black Creek has the second highest rate (20.7%) of child and family poverty.
• Figure 3 shows that about half (13) of Toronto’s wards have rates of child poverty above 15%. Wards in and around the waterfront and downtown east, Willowdale and the Don Valley, central and southern Scarborough, northern Etobicoke, and York South–Weston have high rates.
  
  

Figure 3: Child Poverty Rates By Ward / Riding, 2020, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada (2022). 2021 Census of Population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-401-X2021010.
Note: Child poverty rates are shown for children under the age of 18.}

When we narrow in on census tracts (smaller geographic areas than wards), pockets of child poverty still exist at concerning levels (Figure 4). 

Numerous areas have rates of child poverty that are double or higher than the overall child poverty rate for Toronto: 16 census tracts have a child poverty rate of 30% or higher — four have rates of 35-45.6%, and 12 have rates of 30-34.9%.

Figure 4: Child Poverty Rate By Census Tract, 2020, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada (2022). 2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-401-X2021007.}

While these data are based on significantly smaller populations,³ they show a need for highly localized responses to poverty reduction.

When compared to other large urban centres (Figure 5), Toronto has the third-highest child poverty rate (14.7%) among large urban centres in Canada.

• Only Winnipeg (17.7%) and Montreal (14.9%) have higher rates of child poverty.
• Toronto has a higher child poverty rate than both the province and the country as a whole.
    

Figure 5: Child Poverty Rates in Canada, Ontario and Select Large Urban Centres, 2020

^{Source: Statistics Canada. (2022). 2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001.
Note: “Large urban centres” include select urban areas with populations greater than 500,000.}

So what can we conclude? That bold and swift government action provided temporary relief

What was different in 2020 compared to 2015 that caused poverty to drop? With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the federal government introduced the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) — a lifeline for many residents who suddenly couldn’t work due to lockdowns and closures. In its initial form, CERB offered an immediate and low-barrier $2,000 a month to qualified applicants.

Low-income children and their families have also benefited since 2016 from the Canada child benefit (CCB), which has increased annually since 2018 and is adjusted based on family net income. With the onset of the pandemic, eligible families could also receive an additional CCB top-up in 2020.

In Toronto, 31.6% of adults aged 15 and older (751,480 individuals) received payments from COVID relief programs such as the CERB (see Figure 6). 

Figure 6: Percentage of Residents 15 and Older Who Received Government Transfers, 2015 & 2020, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada (2017).  2016 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-400-X2016119.
Statistics Canada (2022). Table 98-10-0070-01  Income statistics for detailed income sources and taxes: Canada, provinces and territories, census divisions and census subdivisions.
Statistics Canada (2022). Table 98-10-0087-01  The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on income by percentage change in income between 2019 and 2020, age and gender: Canada, provinces and territories and census divisions. 
Note: COVID-19 – Emergency and Recovery Benefits (ERB) refers to the sum of all benefits from federal programs intended to provide financial support to individuals affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to minimize the spread of the virus. It includes: the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB); the Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB); the Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit (CRCB); the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit (CRSB); the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB).}

The median amount received from emergency benefits was $10,000 (Figure 7).
 

Figure 7: Median Income from Government Transfers, 2015 & 2020, City of Toronto

^{Source: Statistics Canada. (2017). 2016 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 98-400-X2016119.
Statistics Canada. (2022). Table 98-10-0070-01 Income statistics for detailed income sources and taxes: Canada, provinces and territories, census divisions and census subdivisions.
Statistics Canada. (2022). Table 98-10-0087-01 The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on income by percentage change in income between 2019 and 2020, age and gender: Canada, provinces and territories and census divisions.
Note: COVID-19 – Emergency and Recovery Benefits (ERB) refers to the sum of all benefits from federal programs intended to provide financial support to individuals affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to minimize the spread of the virus. It includes: the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB); the Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB); the Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit (CRCB); the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit (CRSB); the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB).}

While these figures are not currently available for families in Toronto, analysis from Statistics Canada points to higher government transfers (both child benefits and pandemic-related benefits) as being the driving factor behind the decline in poverty for children and their families.

Just the tip of the iceberg: We need more data to fully understand poverty

Even though poverty declined in 2020 for Toronto’s population, the situation today looks vastly different for many residents.

While poverty is an important indicator of socioeconomic wellbeing, measuring income alone does not provide a complete picture of a person’s financial circumstances. Expenses are just as important. 

For many households, shelter costs make up the largest single expenditure in their budget. In 2021, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment was $1,666 for a purpose-built market unit and $2,355 for a condominium apartment. However, these figures reflect rental housing costs for all units, including those not currently available — average “asking rents” for available units are much higher. Although asking rents experienced a slight lull during the pandemic, according to rental housing search website Rentals.ca prices have been on the rise once again.

Adding to this burden, inflation reached 7.7% in May of this year — the highest it's been in almost 40 years. The rising cost of living means that residents have to spend more to get the same amount of goods and services — a troubling situation for many low-income families who don’t have much wiggle room in their budgets.

The effects of the rising costs of essential items can be seen in food bank usage. Daily Bread Food Bank reported 171,631 food bank visits in June of this year — a record high, up from about 60,000 visits a month pre-pandemic — and almost 8,000 new food bank users. 

The recently released census data is only the tip of the iceberg. Over the next year or so, much more census data will become available, including poverty data for various socio-demographic groups. This disaggregated data will allow us to develop a deeper understanding of how poverty affected communities differently. We know from our previous child and family poverty report that children from systemically marginalized groups, including those who are Indigenous, racialized and newcomers, have disproportionately high rates of poverty.

Bold and sustained action from each order of government is essential

The data released suggests a story of families who were already struggling to make ends meet when they lost their jobs or were forced to leave work or reduce their hours to care for children before being temporarily lifted out of poverty by government assistance. 

Perhaps the most telling lesson from the decline in poverty in 2020 is this: if there’s (political) will, there’s a way. The data captured in the 2021 Census shows the potential of government policy to make a substantial difference in the lives of families and in communities.

While the pandemic continues to affect families and communities across the city, federal benefits are significantly less plentiful, countless people are having to pay back CERB because they’ve been deemed ineligible for all or some of what they received, sick days remain a temporary intervention, and the affordability crisis is taking a heavy toll across the city on the wellbeing and financial security of those most vulnerable. The need for long-term government support, from all levels of government, remains high. 

As we move into pandemic recovery, bold and sustained investments in individuals, communities, and programs are essential. Each level of government must maximize the tools at their disposal and seize this moment to do things differently, starting with affordable, safe, and sustainable housing, child care, transportation, employment, and income security. Now is the time to create more equitable and inclusive systems so that children and families can move out of poverty permanently and with dignity.  

Here in Toronto, we have at least two key opportunities to address child and family poverty in the near future. We can vote on October 24 for City Councillors and a Mayor we can depend on to take significant action on poverty. We can also push the City of Toronto, when it develops the next action plan for its Poverty Reduction Strategy, to ground it in evidence of best practices in poverty reduction, track progress using clear measures, and report regularly and honestly on what is working and what is not. 

As well, if you have been affected by CERB clawbacks or repayments, you can:

• file a CERB-related complaint with the federal Office of the Taxpayers’ Ombudsperson, 
• share your story with Campaign 2000 (you can do so anonymously), and 
• write to your local MP (copying Campaign 2000 at [email protected])

Our sincere thanks to Leila Sarangi, Director of Social Action at Family Service Toronto and National Director of Campaign 2000, for her insightful contributions to this post.

^{1. Throughout this post, “low-income” and “poverty” are used interchangeably to refer to household income that falls below the low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) threshold. The LIM-AT is a threshold calculated at 50 percent of the national household median income and is adjusted for household size. For more information on the measures of poverty see: https://maytree.com/wp-content/uploads/How_do_we_measure_poverty_May2017.pdf ↩}

^{2. Statistics Canada. (2022). Table 98-10-0096-01  Income inequality statistics across Canada: Canada, provinces and territories, census divisions and census subdivisions ↩}

^{3. According to Statistics Canada, census tracts are “small, relatively stable geographic areas that usually have a population of fewer than 7,500 persons.” Each of the 16 census tracts mentioned here have between 195 and 2,820 children aged 0 to 17. ↩}