In recent months, the Toronto Police Service Board has publicly released and asked for feedback on its multi-year hiring plan. The plan projects the hiring of an additional 388 officers in 2024 and another 360 annually in 2025 and 2026. (See the table below for the full hiring plan through 2029.) The multiyear hiring plan and the police budget raise serious questions about the social and economic implications of having a record number of police officers in coming years.
TPS Hiring Plan (2024-29)
Source: Adapted from TPS Board Budget Presentation #3, November 27th, 2024
Upon release of the multiyear hiring plan scenario presented by the TPS Board, Toronto Police Accountability Council (TPAC) conducted a brief analysis of the hefty incremental price tag for each possible scenario. The exact costs of additional hiring are difficult to determine because labour negotiations about salaries and benefits are ongoing. The Toronto Star has reported improper practices and oversight concerning overtime pay, which has significantly increased the police budget in the past.
The first scenario looked at hiring only enough officers to replace those who retire without expanding the force. The second scenario maintains the current ratio of police staffing to the City's population. This approach would require hiring 86 additional officers and 29 civilians annually, at an estimated cost of $25 million or more each year. The third scenario aligns staffing with the current provincial training allocation, requiring 164 additional officers and 55 civilians annually, with an estimated annual cost of $30 million or more. The fourth scenario, an "adjusted service level," proposed hiring between 1,300 and 1,800 additional officers. This approach was described as highly discretionary and significantly more expensive.
Despite deputations at the Budget Committee and TPS Board from citizens expressing concerns about over-policing within their communities, the TPS stuck to a narrative that rising population and crime rates required bolstering the police force in what was presented as the ‘cop-to-pop’ scenario.
In early December, it was officially communicated that TPS Chief Myron Demkiw will ask for a 3.9% budget increase for 2025, equating to approximately $46.2 million. This large increase excludes additional costs from collective agreement salary increases for 2024 and 2025, which are yet to be finalized. The city’s CFO, Stephen Conforti, has told Council in the past that a 1% salary hike in the agreement could add $10 million to the budget. Key components of the proposal include funding for 109 new uniform officers in 2025, representing the largest share of the increase due to ballooning salary costs.
Incremental Budget Impact ($Millions)
Source: Adapted from TPS Board Budget Presentation #3, November 27th, 2024
The TPS proposed budget for 2025 reflects notable increases across multiple categories, emphasizing significant allocations to salaries and operational demands. Salaries and wages represent the largest portion of the budget, rising from $899.6 million in 2024 to $938.4 million in 2025, a 4.3% increase totalling $38.8 million. Premium pay shows a more modest growth, growing by 3.7%, from $59.0 million to $61.2 million, while statutory deductions and benefits rise by 3.6%, from $277.4 million to $287.3 million, an increase of $9.9 million. Other expenditures demonstrate the largest percentage increase among categories, climbing 5.1%, from $111.7 million to $117.5 million, reflecting a $5.7 million rise. Reserve contributions remain unchanged at $13.7 million for both years.
Overall, gross expenditures are set to increase from $1,361.5 million in 2024 to $1,418.2 million in 2025, a 4.2% rise totalling $56.7 million. After accounting for revenues, net expenditures are projected to grow by $46.2 million or 3.9%, reaching $1,220.1 million in 2025. The heavy focus on salaries underscores the operational priority on staffing, which remains the dominant driver of expenditure within the budget.
Source: Adapted from City Hall Watcher, December 6th, 2024
The budget increases likely will not stop in 2025. The multiyear hiring plan estimates that by 2029, TPS will deploy 5,935 officers, maintaining a cop-to-pop ratio of 172 officers per 100,000 residents, based on future projections that Toronto's population will grow to over 3.4 million. This strategy relies on provincial and federal funding to sustain staffing levels and manage high-priority call volumes, projected to increase annually by 3.1%. By the end of the process, Toronto will have more cops than ever in the City’s history, with significant payroll commitments required.
While TPS contends that this 'cop-to-pop' ratio is critical to maintaining emergency response times and investigative capacity, we know that rising response times—from 13 minutes in 2010 to over 22 minutes in 2023—persist despite increased funding and staffing in past years. While TPS highlights staffing increases as a solution to high response times, historical trends show little improvement despite previous budget increases and recruitment drives.
This raises concerns about operational inefficiencies and the prioritization of premium pay and overtime. A much-needed transformative approach would invest in non-police interventions, including community-led safety initiatives, large scale affordable housing projects and youth engagement programs, to address systemic inequities and foster trust between residents and public safety providers.
During the fall consultations at the TPS Board, many community deputations opposed expanding the police force and increasing the budget costs. Instead, advocates argued for reallocating funds from policing to community services to reduce crime and improve public safety. TPAC and other community partners interested in policing issues emphasized that the current police service has room for staffing and budget reductions without compromising service levels.
Community partners further suggested that civilians and community organizations could perform many functions more effectively and at lower costs than police officers. The multi year hiring plan and its budget implications raises critical concerns about resource allocation and the efficacy of the policing model as a community safety intervention. The continued emphasis on increasing police numbers overlooks systemic factors that contribute to safety, such as housing instability, mental health support, and equitable access to resources. The proposed plan’s heavy investment in maintaining police levels perpetuates a reactive model that fails to address the root causes of harm and inequity.
Additionally, TPS has included other operational investments, such as an additional capital expenses of $104 million for facility upgrades, vehicles, and communications. While these investments are framed as modernization efforts, they risk diverting public funds from community-centred solutions, such as alternative crisis response models and preventive programs. This reliance on traditional policing metrics, like ‘cop-to-pop’ ratios, underscores a lack of imagination in rethinking safety frameworks, particularly in light of ongoing concerns about the over-policing of marginalized communities in the city.
The TPS Board envisions additional significant resource allocation for specific areas: $110 million to enhance emergency response, $50 million to expand investigative capacity, and $10 million for traffic safety under Vision Zero. It also earmarks resources for addressing case backlogs, reported hate crimes (up 43% year-over-year as of late 2023 per their own statistics), and carjacking incidents. While these are legitimate concerns, community-led and preventive approaches may be more cost-effective and sustainable in addressing the root causes of crime. Instead the current thinking appears to be to police ourselves out of social and economic malaise which includes a city wide cost of living and affordability crisis and record levels poverty affecting the most vulnerable populations such as children, and the consequent conversion of basic human rights such as food and shelter into luxuries for the average family in Toronto.
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